Victory is unlikely for either Ukraine or Russia, and the current path toward endless war will only bring further destruction to both.
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More than two and a half years in, the war in Ukraine has taken or crippled hundreds of thousands of lives, with no end in sight. Deep mistrust, changing prospects along the frontlines, and grinding battles like those at Vuhledar and Bakhmut all contribute to driving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin away from the negotiating table. Yet while Russia’s invasion is the fundamental cause of the conflict, both Moscow and Ukraine’s Western allies have contributed to preventing peace, sometimes intentionally, other times indirectly.
In the first few months of the war, a genuine opportunity for a swift and peaceful resolution emerged. Ukrainian and Russian negotiators met in Turkey and Belarus to discuss terms, with Kyiv exploring the idea of rejecting NATO membership and giving up some territory in exchange for multilateral security guarantees — a proposal that both sides seemed ready to agree to in principle, despite disagreements on some specifics.
